Jun 29, 2017

O'Connell's Methodology

In a call yesterday, Ray O'Connell stated that he is employing a methodology to determine if he can win in November.  His team is conducting a poll of registered voters.  If they determine that a plurality of voters will support him, he will proceed waging a write-in campaign.  He expects the survey to be completed by late July.

I don't initiate such conversations; I find them to be somewhat constricting.  If I express any doubt here about everything that I am told,  the caller usually takes even more offense than I normally cause.  Likewise,  although I will occasionally endorse a candidate,  I have no interest in an on-going promotion of any candidate or office holder.  However,  I am always available to hear out anybody.  I never want this blog to misrepresent anybody's position.

I do believe that O'Connell is trying to be scientific about his decision.  If emotion and enthusiasm cloud his data,  we'll know the morning after the election.


Scott Armstrong said...

Is he using a professional polling firm or is he using a few friends who think they know how to do a poll. Polls done professionally, that provide fairly accurate results would run about five thousand dollars and up. Doubt he has that kind of money to spend. If he isn't using a professional polling firm the results will be worthless because how you ask the questions and who you ask make all the difference.
Long story short, I think Ray is looking for cover to run. He came in third in the Democratic Primary, what the Hell makes him think he can come in 1st in a general where his two opponents will have hundreds of thousands to spend, real professionals working for them, and a clue about what it takes to win. Do that calculation Ray and stop this right now. Honestly, if you really care about the city then don't run. If you continue with this stupidity then you will just be part of the problem. Then please register as an official agent of the Pawlowski Re-Elect team.

Aaron White said...

I think the poll would focus on which other candidate he'd be "stealing" votes from, rather than whether or not he can win. If his write-in campaign would take votes from the Republican candidate, there's no point in him running, but if he'd take votes from the Democractic candidate, he could turn the election. I suspect that's the real strategy here. The goal isn't to win, it's to keep Palowski from winning.

Scott Armstrong said...

Quickly, here are the facts; everyone knows who Ed is, presently few Know Nat Hyman but soon enough Nat will become a household word in the city because the Pawlowski team will smear him like there is no tomorrow. That is their motis operendi. So the choice for voters will be this simple; they will be divided into two camps, those who will support Ed no matter what, and those who want change. If you divide the change vote Ed's chances of winning improve dramatically.
As a retired school teacher Ray should remember what he no doubt passed on to many students; learn how to take good advice.

Dean N. Browning said...

I want to respond to a question posed by Michael previously and use that to comment on today's post. First, PA has a "sore loser" law that prevents anyone who loses in a primary from then collecting signatures and getting on the ballot as an independent. A write-in campaign may not violate the letter of that law but I do think it violates the spirit. Particularly in this case where the losing candidate plans to actively participate in the write-in effort to circumvent the will of the voters as expressed in the primary. And don't argue that primary turnout was "light". Those that chose not to vote conferred their decision to those who did.

Even if a write-in campaign is legal, Ray will face several insurmountable hurdles. The principal one being that his name will not be on the ballot. Democrat voters in Allentown have a propensity to vote straight party making up over 40% of the Democrat vote in the election last November. This year there is a contested race for mayor, for county executive, for one of the council seats and for one commissioner seat that includes part of Allentown (District 3). So there will be incentive for those campaigns to try and turnout voters who will vote straight party. To overcome this Ray will have to run a real campaign which will take volunteers and money. As a write-in I doubt if Ray will be included in any debates so he will have to get his message out via paid media. That will take a minimum of $75,000 and more like $125,000 to do effectively. And that is just to convince folks to vote for him. From there he has to have a way of conveying the mechanics of a write-in to those folks who show up at the poll. This will necessitate extensive poll coverage on election day requiring at least 100 volunteers.

In my opinion and based on what I saw in the primary, both of these items (money and volunteers) are beyond Ray's capabilities from a campaign standpoint. At this point, only one of two people will be elected the next Mayor - Pawlowski or Hyman. My estimate is that it will take at least 5,000 votes to win. Ray's chances of getting that many write-in votes ranges from exceedingly slim to non-existent. All a write-in by Ray would do is to increase the odds that Pawlowski is elected to a fourth term. In which case that will be Ray's legacy.


michael molovinsky said...

scott and dean, based on my conversation with ray i could answer/reply to some of the issues/questions raised. however, i think that it is incumbent upon ray, or at least one of his supporters, if such a response will appear on this forum.

Scott Armstrong said...

Convincing response from the Ray O'Connell people.

michael molovinsky said...

scott@9:25, as i implied before, it is not my intention to degrade or promote any candidate. another blogger recently criticized someone for not responding to his invitation to explain herself. nobody owes me or this blog a reply. i assume people, especially candidates , will only respond if they think that it will improve their position. we know that ray couldn't justify his run with you even if he walked on water. : )

Scott Armstrong said...

If one hopes to be elected to any office they/the office seeker need to communicate with the voters and provide convincing arguments on why they are deserving of support. I see none of that here. Whether I would or would not support Ray does not invalidate my legitimate questions. Any voter can and should ask the same and demand answers.He should be prepared to provide them. My interest is Allentown. Ray's ridiculous, quixotic write in campaign deserves scrutiny, and now, due to a lack of response, scorn.

Chris Casey said...

Here is how any poll done by Ray O'Connell should list their questions:
1.Are you planning to vote for Mayor in November? Yes/No
2.If Yes, Would you consider casting a Write in Vote for someone other than the candidates listed on the ballot? Yes/No

At no time should any candidate name be mentioned, either positively or negatively. They should also only contact voters who have voted in the last 3 general Mayoral elections. If this is done by a less than professional group, the temptation to push poll will be great, and the accuracy of the results suspect. You can't just call people you know support you, you have to do a broad survey of all 57 city precincts. I would say making contact and getting responses from 15 to 20 actual voters in each precinct. and to get that many contacts, Ray's poll people will have to try and contact at least 4000 of the most likely voters to make this legitimate. The task will be overwhelming, and likely prohibitively expensive. Does anyone really believe he can get 6,000 of the likely 14,000 to 16,000 Allentown voters in November to write in his name? (And I think that turnout projection is about 20% to high)
I don't want to be discouraging, because I do believe Ray is a far better candidate than Ed or Nat, but I am realistic, and I have been studying area turnout now going on 15 years.
Ray will not win, and it would most likely help the current crime lord in office