Nat Hyman better not put too much faith in the current poll released by Muhlenberg College, and campaign as if he's behind, because he just might be. The Muhlenberg polls are historically wrong, and this one seems no different. Their lead question asked about the four candidates on the ballot, which excluded Ray O'Connell. Although, the Morning Call article states that the poll puts O'Connell's support third, behind Pawlowski, it's unclear as it where that piece of data came from.
These polls are a joint project by the Morning Call and Muhlenberg College. The article quotes one gentleman.
Leonard Glazier, a 91-year-old Democrat who lives in the West End, said he voted for Pawlowski in the primary but likely will support O’Connell in this election. The city is in pretty good shape under the mayor’s leadership, Glazier said, but the criminal charges against the mayor make him uncomfortable.“He’s going on trial supposedly after the election. What happens if he is convicted,” Glazier said. “The city doesn’t need that.”What the article doesn't reveal is that this gentleman is closely related to a city official, and was well aware of the pending charges against Pawlowski when he voted for him in the primary. Frankly, I hope that Nat Hyman takes my warning to heart. Neither the paper or the college currently have the institutional memory to truly understand this election. In the 2005 mayoral race, The Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll was off by 26%.
If Ingram stays in the race now, after this poll, it proves his concerns are for himself rather than the best interests of the city. And he should be judged according. Likewise Ray O'Connell who also despite the ignorant bluster is campaigning to lose.
ReplyDeleteLess we forget the general election as well. Most if not all polls were wrong.
ReplyDeleteAs far as the Muhlenberg College poll, they are the same ones who had Ms. Hillary winning PA by 7%. Their accuracy is abysmal. However, they do think that 12% of the voters polled have not made up their minds. This is disconcerting. Comments made by a 91-year old man, probably related to a local politician who supported Boss Hog, has not drove around, [or even walked around the city], to see how the neighborhoods are crumbling. If you call this a good job, you are out of reality! As one of your bloggers have stated, the inclusion of Ray O'Connell in the general, will hurt the Hyman campaign with the cross over vote he could of expected. Once again, and at the sin of repeating, public safety has to be the No.1 issue and Nat has not presented a change and strategy in fighting this plague that Pawlowski has refused to battle and is delusional about. In other words, same old, same old.
ReplyDeleteLook at how the question that gets Ray O'Connell to 22% is phrased.If the election was today and the race was between Nay Hyman, Ed Pawlowski, Ray "O'Connell, Not sure,John Ingram, None of the above, Solomon Tempo.
ReplyDeleteWell Ray O'Connell is not on the ballot. Notice the poll never asked this question; will you write in Ray O'Connell for mayor?
Major flaw in this poll. My guess is Ray's number would have been much lower if that question was asked.
It's not the West End that votes in large numbers in Allentown.
ReplyDeleteIt's hard to believe that the Morning Call (the Muhlenberg people might have been ignorant to the relationship of Mr. Glazier to a pol) would print that 'ol guy's comments.
ReplyDelete