Elections are won by addition, not subtraction from your base.
It is true that about 35% - 40% of the Republican base is for Trump and nothing he does will cause them to waver.....he could have dropped his trousers and mooned the moderators and they would cheer him on. BUT, that is not enough voters to reach 50% and one. Simply put, even if ALL of Trump's supporters show up to vote, he falls short. So, to win, he has to, horrors of horrors, reach beyond the deplorables , irredeemables, and alt-right pure reprehensibles. Yes, he followed some coaching advice and bagged the funny pouting faces and seemed sedated, but, his creeping around the stage looked weird & lurking, especially when it is a short woman on stage in front of him. It just looked like he was trying to get into every frame shot of her like a photo bomber. Though a cliche, he really has to appeal to and bring in those white, suburban soccer moms.
Hillary was too clever by half in not responding/defending all the charges leveled at her.....telling folks to go to her web site "Fact Checkers" is lame, and quoting Michele Obama to ignore garbage and "go high" doesn't appeal to non partisan Democrats. Suspect you will see her change that tactic by the next debate, unless he is down in the polls by double digits in the swing states, in which case she will just let him foam in the mouth.
I think he committed three tactical errors that will doom him:
1. Libertarians & BernieManaics are potential swing voters this time. Gary Johnson has lost all creditability. They don't like Trump or Clinton, but, they hate Big Government even more. When Trump went off on his Banana Republic tirade about prosecuting Hillary after he wins the election he strikes the worst fears in their hearts of government run amok.
2. By stating that he "admires" that Hillary is a fighter who never quits, he undermines his theme that she is an old, tired, lazy campaigner that lacks the energy to be President. The reasoning doesn't compute for anyone not suffering from Clinton Derangement Syndrome.
3. Trump broke the Gary Hart Rule of Politics.....you NEVER, EVER, EVER, EVER DARE the press to uncover evidence of your indiscretions. When he categorically denied ever actually groping anyone (after Cooper set him up by defining same as a sexual assault) he assured that someone will go for the money and sell an audio or video of a woman alleging otherwise. It will be a Bill Crosby - Roger Ailes cavalcade of women coming forward. They won't be 60+ year old women like he trotted out pre-debate....Bill Clinton women from DogPatch, Arkansas, who looked like Taliban hostages on stage......rather, they will be "10's" in Trump parlance, lookers in their 30's who were beauty pageant contestants or TV show assistants from the last decade, when they were in their late teens or early 20's......who he hit on while married to Melania. You can book that Gloria Alford's phone is ringing off the hook now with prospective clients.
You can stick a fork in him; he's done. The battle now is for Congress....."You need me there so that there is a check on Hillary, not a rubber stamp" will be every Republican's theme now. If she wins by 3 or 4 points they probably get by....if she carries a state by anything above 6 they are in big trouble. Four pickups in the Senate gives them control there (VP casts the tie breaker). They pick up 13 seats in the House and Ryan can't pass anything without Democratic votes, because even with a 30 seat majority now they frustrate him. He loses half of that and he has no where to go but to the Democrats in order to pass even Mother's Day resolutions.
Guest Post by Trent Hall
molovinsky on allentown will not be published Wednesday, October 12, 2016
Yawn... so easy to be a liberal with the media covering your back and telling you how great you are. Your parochial micro-analysis misses the larger picture of what is happening in America and why a very large percentage of the population, perhaps not 51% on election night will support the very flawed Donald Trump.
ReplyDeleteAt least Trump is not part of the cesspool that is our government. At least he will not tell the voters what polls tell them we want to hear then craft legislation that benefits big donors. At least Trump didn't hire detectives to smear the women he made "crude comments" about and threaten them with consequences if they spoke out against Bill.
At least Trump isn't to blame for our corrupted the media, the corrupted Justice Department, The corrupted FBI, The corrupted IRS, and many other previously un-corrupted government entities. Many Americans have become appalled by all this and their unlikely champion is a very flawed vehicle, but he isn't part of the problem and frankly that is good enough.
Hard to imagine being a Democrat these days. Closing your eyes to the total fiasco of Obama and Hillary's foreign policy. Hundreds of thousands have died, millions displaced to refugee camps and dangerous desperate attempts to flee the results of clearly feckless American non leadership. It would have been far cheaper to buy every non insured person in America private health care then What Obama care has cost and those of us who have seen our costs spiral upward would have been spared.We have not seen economic growth of 3% under Obama and wages have been stagnate. The rich have gotten richer and the rest of us have suffered. Wall Street has been having a party while the Fed keeps interest rates at almost 0 for us and our savings.Their are race riots again and the nation is uncertain and fearful.
So to sum up, how do Democrats feel smug after all this? I know, the media tells them everything is just fine. Simple answer right?
Regardless of the problems Americans face, Trump is just not the guy to fix anything.
ReplyDeleteLook, all I really need to know about Trump is that he does not read books. "There's no time," he says. The man could not care less about learning anything. He is totally uninformed on all matters, and he simply relies on charisma and bullying tactics to get his way. I tell my kids all the time (and try to remind myself, too) that the smart people in the room are the ones asking questions, the ones admitting that they don't know everything. The blustery loud mouths who seem to "know it all" inevitably do not know much, and cannot see past their own blind spots.
He is a pathetic indictment of the shallowness of Americans. How we (collectively) could let such an ill informed and mean spirited person get this far in the Presidential race is beyond me.
I admire Hillary Clinton a great deal, and I'm actually really excited to cast a vote for her. But, I understand she is a trigger for many intelligent people. I would prefer that the conversation about HRC revolve around policy matters and not conspiracy theories, but when lies are repeated over and over, it is easy to accept them as postulates that need no proof. I also understand that defending her policies here is...pointless. I really just wanted to say that regardless of how you feel about the state of the union, Trump is not the guy to fix anything.
There are many intelligent people who are also evil. Never make the mistake of assuming smarts bring along goodness for the ride. Brains are not a factor in morality. Many of the leaders of the Third Reich were well educated, cultured, and well read. I'm sure many people had interesting discussions with them about books, plays, operas,the theatre, and the like.
ReplyDeleteWake up and see the rampant corruption of our federal government under the Obama and Clinton tenure. See the massive and deadly failure of their foreign policy. And finally consider this, Trump as president could be impeached in a heartbeat. He will be forced to walk the straight and narrow by both parties. Think there is a chance for the same with President?
"President Hillary" somehow left of the Hillary.
ReplyDeleteMM,
ReplyDeleteDo the make bobbleheads like that for most of allentowns council members? No meeting this week and accountable accounting is going to be the same old song and dance as public official no3 has been pandering since its appointment a crowned king?
It's really quite a simple choice.
ReplyDeleteDo we want someone who is coarse and direct with his views and not always polished??
Or do we want a corrupt liar that would use the Presidency for their own benefit and not always for the best interest of the United States?
Choosing not to vote basically means your vote supports the candidate you do not support. Your choice, you decide. I have already.
You have to really question the intelligence of the American voter - both those living, and those who continue to vote after they have died.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure there are many qualified presidential candidates, who will never run because of the media. There are virtually no more journalists - that's why we now call it the media. The media has destroyed any fairness in political contests, or hopes of having intelligent discussion.
If a private statement (no worse than Howard Stern or my Senator Al Frankenstein) made by Trump, 11 years ago, causes him to lose 8 points in the polls - then those folks were never with Trump.
In a way it doesn't matter, the US is past the tipping point. We have drifted so far off course from the original intent of the Constitution, there's no way to bring it back. The Congress is completely grid locked. We now regularly have laws passed that are 1000 - 2000 pages long - more is less.
The big items that are consuming us: ever growing entitlements, health care costs, productive good paying jobs, expanding the economy - have no direct solution.
Consider health care: how would one reduce the cost? You have salaries, fixed assets (buildings / hospitals / clinics / equipment), and everything in the 'chain' that supplies goods and services, and then there are drugs. What are you going to do - cut their salaries? A mere pittance. And how are you going to 'spread out the cost' - when 50% of the people don't pay Federal income tax?
With Trump he might be able build the wall, get visa overstay's fixed. The rest of his agenda (like changing the corp tax rate) will only have effects way in the future.
With Hillary you get 'status quo' - more laws, more regulations, more taxes, more programs. This is what we've been doing for the last 50 years.
Doug, I love your optimism about our Country.
ReplyDeleteRead your Constitution again! Our Founding Fathers were extremely more intelligent than you give them credit for.
Article V "The Convention of States" Project is alive and well, with nearly 2 million Patriotic Americans engaged as we speak...Also many of us Military Veterans involved with The Convention Of States National Veterans Coalition.....
Have faith Young Man!
"The Old Allentown Curmudgeon"....PJF
HRC is corrupt, but crafty and a seasoned politician. She knows how to get things done. She has foreign policy experience. She has an accomplished group of policy makers and other political dignitaries to call upon as her Cabinet. She has been able to learn from a successful President-both good lessons and bad examples.
ReplyDeleteThen again, you could make nearly all of those claims about Richard Millhouse Nixon, too.
Sitting back, eating popcorn, enjoying what is-if nothing else (and it IS nothing else) a wildly entertaining election.