The Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, under the direction of Chris Borick, in cooperation with The Morning Call, today reported results of its current poll; Obama 50%, McCain 41%, with a margin error of +/- 4%. Manipulation is a strong word, but I'm just a local blogger with an ax to grind. I don't think it's a stretch to suppose a liberal college professor and a liberal newspaper would give the benefit of the doubt to Obama, but back to my ax. The Morning Call justified excluding me from the mayoral debate in 2005 because of a survey by Borick. For that election the "Institute" had William Heydt beating Edward Pawlowski by 7 points. Ed won the election by 20 points, the poll was off by 27%, slightly more than 4% margin of error! I'd like to see a survey of the accuracy of results by Morning Call/Muhlenberg polls over the years. But who would conduct it, the newspaper or college?
Mike, wait until you see their Dent/Bennett Poll results. That will really have you scratching your head!
ReplyDeleteThere may be reason to be skeptical of small polls like this, but it seems silly to attribute them to liberal manipulation. Aside from the Obama-McCain results-up (which is, anyway, completely in keeping with other PA polls--see fivethirtyeight.com), you point, Mike, to the Pawlowski-Heydt matchup. But to state the obvious: that poll heavily (and wrongly) favored the Republican! How is this support for a claim of liberal bias?
ReplyDeletejeff, i don't want you to think i have theories about the grassy knoll, or 9-11, but in 2005 i think the result of the poll was to energize the democrats and cause some apathy on part of the republicans. the media hardly pretends to be objective anymore, i suppose the colleges are still indulging in the pretense? who are you voting for?
ReplyDeleteDidn't Muhlenberg College conduct that ridiculous poll about whether or not Allentown was improving just a few months ago?
ReplyDeleteOne should pay little attention to these poles.
ReplyDeleteFar too much inherent bias to be credible.
Quick turnarounds are fraught with errors and often short cuts to make the deadline.
For the most part futile attempts to sway the public - under the name of science - what ever that is these days.
What exactly are you accusing them of manipulating? IF they indeed had a "liberal" agenda, why would they have predicted Heydt a winner?
ReplyDeletehayshaker, see comment #3
ReplyDeleteBernie, er, I mean hayshaker, The Morning Call is an incumbent leaning publication. It protects those in power. It not only is a "No place for hate", but it is also a "no place for Challengers."
ReplyDeleteDon't rock the boat baby!