Jul 25, 2017

The Pawlowski Predicament.

Blogger Bernie O'Hare has reported that a lawyer associated with Ed Pawlowski expects to be indicted soon, perhaps even today.  Others speculated that this new round of indictments would include Ed Pawlowski.

A New York State Legislator had his bribery/public corruption conviction overturned by the 2nd Court of Appeals, because under the Supreme Court's recent McDonnell decision,  a public official engaging in generalized support for a patron or a contributor is no longer enough to establish a conviction.  Bernie further speculated that perhaps dropping out of the mayoral race might be a condition of bail.  I would think that regardless of what happens in regard to Pawlowski being indicted,  he will be on the ballot come November.   Furthermore, I doubt that an indictment will significantly change his chances of being elected, whatever those happen to be.  His pending indictment has already been baked into the odds.  His constituents, mostly Allentown's minority communities, won't blink over these charges.

In other ballot news, based on a conversation with Ray O'Connell last month,  I expect a decision from him this week about waging a write-in campaign.

In conclusion, I don't see an indictment of Pawlowski changing the election results.  I suspect that a trial won't occur before 2018.

ADDENDUM: Ray O'Connell is making an announcement on August 3th.  Apparently, he is joining the mayoral race as a write-in candidate.

13 comments:

Scott Armstrong said...

Apparently "Ed's good friend" Ray O'Connell has a big announcement to make on August 3rd. Allentown doubles down on dumb.

michael molovinsky said...

scott@7:34, ray believes that pawlowski won't do better in the general than he did in the primary, about 1,700 votes. with these rumors of pending indictment, he may be emboldened.

since i'm commenting, allow to be elaborate on my post. i'm not at this point predicting a winner for november, i'm simply saying that an indictment won't deter pawlowski's support from minorities.

Dave said...

Bernie's death watch continues ... tick .. tick .... tick ....

michael molovinsky said...

dave@9:48, bernie and I have a different style for our blogs. he takes positions for or against particular politicians, and shades his posts and comments accordingly. i don't like anybody, and advocate instead for parks and our history. his post today summarizing pawlowski's downfall was well done.

Rich Fegley said...

O'Connell almost had as many votes as Pawlowksi in the primary. If the Democrats that did not vote for Pawlowski all vote for O'Connell as a write-in, O'Connell could win.

"O'Connell secured 23 percent of the vote with almost all precincts reporting. Thiel received 22 percent. Siobhan "Sam" Bennett, a city bed-and-breakfast owner and a former CEO in Washington, D.C. trailed with 12 percent."

If all of these voters write-in O'Connell, he could win, yes?

michael molovinsky said...

rich@11:15, write-in is much easier now with the electronic voting machines, but it still requires an extra effort. we'll see what happens.

Jamie Kelton said...

Every vote that Ray O'Connell receives is a vote that would have gone to Hyman.

Rich Fegley said...

I'll assume that O'Connell will win by getting all of the non-Pawlowski/Hyman votes.

Or will voters that voted for Thiel and Bennett vote for Pawlowski or Hyman? O'Connell could get 57% of the Democratic vote. How many votes could that potentially be?

michael molovinsky said...

rich@2:23, numerous people familiar with elections believe that one on one, hyman, even while being a republican, can prevail over a scandalized pawlowski. however, with o'connell in the race, pawlowski will win again with a slight plurality. historically, there are about 7,800 votes cast for mayor. o'connell had told me that he would only run if his telephone survey indicated that he could indeed win, getting over 3,000 votes. we'll see come november.



pathfinder said...

The Mayor's indictment today and depending on the terms of bail could change everything for the election. The Judge could stipulate that Fed-Ed has to withdraw from the election as a requirement for bail.

Scott Armstrong said...

and Ray should cool his jets until the dust settles on this. My guess and the educated opinion of others is that Ed can do as he pleases until convicted.

This said,the comments posted here today regarding Ray's chances of winning are clearly uninformed. The truth is, for many reasons, that have already been clearly spelled out on this blog in great detail in previous posts,there is no way in Hell Ray can pull it off. I would add this one additional thought;apathy is Ray's biggest roadblock to a win. Look at the turnout numbers in Allentown's local elections, they are way worse than pathetic, they speak of total disinterest on the part of A-Town's residents in the goings on in city hall! With this in mind, only a politician with real charisma could excite Allentown's disinterested voters to go to the polls and write his name in.Clearly, Ray, a nice guy, is not that person. Ed will only need to make sure he gets "Democrats" to do their nonthinking duty of pulling the straight party ticket. Nat will have to overcome the stigma of being on the "R" side of the ballot even though he only changed parties to run for this race.
So Mike, your prediction is a good bet, but Ray's write in campaign make betting on Ed, even with the indictment, the safe one.

michael molovinsky said...

pathfinder@5:47, i discount that possibility. it would seem to impose a guilt and consequence to which pawlowski has not yet admitted.

Bob Welsh said...

Pawlowski is wondering whether he can claim that the negative stories are fake news.