Mar 20, 2017

Pawlowski's Luck Of The Irish


Residents of the West End, from 19th street to Ott, between Tilghman and Liberty think that Pawlowski did a good job with the snow. This neighborhood, bordering into the west end, contains many super-voters.   In reality, the area was plowed curb to curb to facilitate the St. Patrick's Day Parade on Sunday.

Reports from elsewhere in the city aren't so good.  The school system had to hire a contractor to clear the school fronts, because the city's snow removal was inadequate.

The only thing wrong with my political analysis in the first paragraph is that it is incorrect.  Unlike 2013, 2009, and 2005, that west end neighborhood does not belong to Pawlowski; It will likely go to Ray O'Connell.  Likewise, Charlie Thiel and Sam Bennett have strong sections of the city, and have been working hard for the nomination. Although, they all read this blog and my predictions, none of them concede the advantage to Pawlowski.  The Democratic Primary this year is a real horse race.

9 comments:

Scott Armstrong said...

Mike,

Ed will win those who are still with him now. That number is very likely higher than the tally any of the other primary candidates will receive. Hope I am wrong, but remember, this is Allentown.

Scott Armstrong said...

Mike,

The way I see it there are three real challengers to Ed. If one of the three would get out and endorse one of the other two that candidate might gather momentum as the anti-Pawlowski candidate. If that doesn't happen and I don't think it will, Ed wins.

michael molovinsky said...

scott, your strategic point of view is spot on. however, knowing all three challengers, and having spoken to two them very recently, that won't be happening.

Scott Armstrong said...

A real parade of fools. Let's not let what's best for Allentown, ending Ed's reign of corruption behind us get in the way of our personal missions to be mayor.

And by the way, who wouldn't want that job? Exactly what are the duties of the mayor now that we have a full time managing director. If you aren't busy shaking down business people for campaign donations then what's left. Just PR crap.

Jamie Kelton said...

My question to the other candidates is quite simply.... where were you ?

The parade was a city function, not a Pawlowski function. The mayor had the advantage of incumbency, yes, but as a city parade and rally, the other candidates could have taken part but were absent.

If you're going to beat the mayor, you have to work to beat the mayor. Not just say how bad he is.... that's the Hillary Clinton style of campaigning and you know what happened to her.

A successful candidate gets out there and presses the flesh, puts themselves in the public eye, and hustles for votes. The parade was a Pawlowski event because they let him make it so.

michael molovinsky said...

jamie@9:53, I did not attend the parade. however, from their facebook pages, i know that the other candidates did have some presence there. for instance, Thiel participated in the associated 5 k race

Jamie Kelton said...

I understand that Mr Molovinsky and I appreciate what you say. Pawlowski's opponents, if they are going to defeat him, need to be out nipping his heels like dogs that won't go away. They let him march in the parade, smiling, waving, meeting people that were there. All of them should have been in that parade, doing the exact same thing. Every time Ed participates in some city function that is public, they need to be right there getting the same level of publicity he is.

Are there going to be debates on channel 39 or WFMZ ? Pawlowski has a big advantage, he has both name recognition and he also has incumbency. His opponents have what? Facebook? They need to step it up a level or two and out hustle Pawlowski like their campaigns depend on it.

Elections are nothing but advertising campaigns. Selling the candidate to the people, convincing the voters that your candidacy is better than the other guy's is. Pawlowski knows this. It needs to be a dog-eat-dog race to election day. That's the only way they will defeat him.

pathfinder said...

Jamie, The parade route being in the west end was actually beneficial to Ray O'Connell. When the Mayor walked by the different crowds they started chanting "Ray O'Connell". Because of his career with ASD, particularly Trexler Middle School Principal, Ray not only has name recognition but a history of integrity. If the parade would have been held anywhere else in the city, your comments would have been right on the mark.

I believe that the election debates will heat up in April. The last 6 weeks of the campaign will be intense. There will be public debates and rallies. Some are already planned. Why are the candidates waiting until then? Because the electorate has short memories.

Scott Armstrong said...

Doing nothing other than quiet door to door at this point is routine in these types of races. Unless you have to money to attempt to destroy your opponent early. That doesn't seem to be the case this time with a newly penniless Pawlowski.