Oct 11, 2016
Second Debate Aftermath
Elections are won by addition, not subtraction from your base.
It is true that about 35% - 40% of the Republican base is for Trump and nothing he does will cause them to waver.....he could have dropped his trousers and mooned the moderators and they would cheer him on. BUT, that is not enough voters to reach 50% and one. Simply put, even if ALL of Trump's supporters show up to vote, he falls short. So, to win, he has to, horrors of horrors, reach beyond the deplorables , irredeemables, and alt-right pure reprehensibles. Yes, he followed some coaching advice and bagged the funny pouting faces and seemed sedated, but, his creeping around the stage looked weird & lurking, especially when it is a short woman on stage in front of him. It just looked like he was trying to get into every frame shot of her like a photo bomber. Though a cliche, he really has to appeal to and bring in those white, suburban soccer moms.
Hillary was too clever by half in not responding/defending all the charges leveled at her.....telling folks to go to her web site "Fact Checkers" is lame, and quoting Michele Obama to ignore garbage and "go high" doesn't appeal to non partisan Democrats. Suspect you will see her change that tactic by the next debate, unless he is down in the polls by double digits in the swing states, in which case she will just let him foam in the mouth.
I think he committed three tactical errors that will doom him:
1. Libertarians & BernieManaics are potential swing voters this time. Gary Johnson has lost all creditability. They don't like Trump or Clinton, but, they hate Big Government even more. When Trump went off on his Banana Republic tirade about prosecuting Hillary after he wins the election he strikes the worst fears in their hearts of government run amok.
2. By stating that he "admires" that Hillary is a fighter who never quits, he undermines his theme that she is an old, tired, lazy campaigner that lacks the energy to be President. The reasoning doesn't compute for anyone not suffering from Clinton Derangement Syndrome.
3. Trump broke the Gary Hart Rule of Politics.....you NEVER, EVER, EVER, EVER DARE the press to uncover evidence of your indiscretions. When he categorically denied ever actually groping anyone (after Cooper set him up by defining same as a sexual assault) he assured that someone will go for the money and sell an audio or video of a woman alleging otherwise. It will be a Bill Crosby - Roger Ailes cavalcade of women coming forward. They won't be 60+ year old women like he trotted out pre-debate....Bill Clinton women from DogPatch, Arkansas, who looked like Taliban hostages on stage......rather, they will be "10's" in Trump parlance, lookers in their 30's who were beauty pageant contestants or TV show assistants from the last decade, when they were in their late teens or early 20's......who he hit on while married to Melania. You can book that Gloria Alford's phone is ringing off the hook now with prospective clients.
You can stick a fork in him; he's done. The battle now is for Congress....."You need me there so that there is a check on Hillary, not a rubber stamp" will be every Republican's theme now. If she wins by 3 or 4 points they probably get by....if she carries a state by anything above 6 they are in big trouble. Four pickups in the Senate gives them control there (VP casts the tie breaker). They pick up 13 seats in the House and Ryan can't pass anything without Democratic votes, because even with a 30 seat majority now they frustrate him. He loses half of that and he has no where to go but to the Democrats in order to pass even Mother's Day resolutions.
Guest Post by Trent Hall
molovinsky on allentown will not be published Wednesday, October 12, 2016